Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:29:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5C 0x5cb3…04f1 crypto 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%228W / 4L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$31
14 days+$38
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$34
finance 3% +$2
other 2% +$1
sports 1% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 +1.0% -8.6% 98% 1% -8.6%
≤30d 232 +1.2% -8.5% 98% 1% -8.5%
≤90d 232 +1.2% -8.5% 98% 1% -8.5%
all 232 +1.2% -8.5% 98% 1% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 1% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses228 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)232 / 235
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? No 93¢ 100¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $11 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.40 · official $46.98 (match) · 470 history records