Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5C 0x5cb4…6f97 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 503d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate77%43W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$6
crypto 8% +$2
economics 2% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% −$10
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 -1.6% -11.0% 77% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

503d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses43 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage503d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? Jan 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $18 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $270 in September? Oct 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 02 $32 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $16 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in May? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 10 $5,811 −$6 -0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 04 $3 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Kelvin Banks Jr. be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 19 $42 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Connor win the Hart Trophy? Apr 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $17 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Mar 10 $33 $0 -0%
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 09 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 30d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 62d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 62d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 90d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 91d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $38 93d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 121d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $19 123d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $35 123d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 100¢ $29 151d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 180d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $20 181d
Will BNB reach $1,250 in December? BUY No 100¢ $26 181d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $36 211d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $5 240d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $28 242d
Will Solana reach $270 in September? BUY No 100¢ $7 271d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $30 273d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 302d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 332d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 333d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $32 334d
Solana all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $16 364d
XRP all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.15 · official $54.15 (match) · 120 history records