Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:36:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5cb5…7ce9 sports 168 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$161 (-0%) realized −$156 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate70%114W / 50L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$747per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$933est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$536now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$964
7 days+$1,762
14 days+$733
30 days−$634
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$3,598
other 11% +$2,774
world 1% +$94
crypto 0% +$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.7% -13.8% 70% 33% -3.4%
≤30d 161 +0.3% -9.3% 69% 45% -10.0%
≤90d 164 +0.7% -8.9% 70% 46% -9.9%
all 164 +0.7% -8.9% 70% 46% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 46% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 30% -18.5%
15% -25.5% 18% -26.4%
20% -32.8% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,002) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$247 vs −$573 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$536
Realized−$156
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses114 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$933
Open positions2
Markets (closed)164 / 168
History coverage36d
Avg bet$747
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu Irina-Camelia Begu 13¢ 12¢ $312 $300 −$12 (-4%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Stefanos Sakellaridis 82¢ 84¢ $229 $236 +$7 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 23 $224 +$36 +16%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $460 −$460 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 22 $6 $0 +6%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 22 $166 +$34 +20%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1,012 +$88 +9%
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) Jun 22 $817 +$42 +5%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1,305 −$1,305 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $970 +$522 +54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $97 −$97 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,004 +$96 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,001 +$79 +4%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,877 +$2,622 +140%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $510 +$879 +172%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $999 −$999 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $985 +$255 +26%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $529 +$1,022 +193%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $997 +$123 +12%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $494 −$494 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $1,149 −$1,147 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,004 +$76 +8%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1,940 +$60 +3%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $930 +$70 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,500 +$445 +30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,001 +$99 +10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $1,998 +$92 +5%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $1,255 +$333 +26%
Nottingham Open: Lois Boisson vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,380 +$400 +29%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $121 +$17 +14%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1,008 +$172 +17%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $494 +$131 +27%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $426 +$174 +41%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $893 +$107 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $564 +$2,001 +354%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $498 +$117 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $124 +$76 +61%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $997 +$123 +12%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $1,094 −$1,093 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,971 +$269 +14%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $1,126 +$81 +7%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $989 +$161 +16%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $1,540 +$460 +30%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane Jun 13 $263 −$263 -100%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Hayato Matsuoka Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Burruchaga Jun 13 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 13 $4,915 −$4,915 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 13¢ $320 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Stefanos Sakellaridis 82¢ $230 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 92¢ $98 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 92¢ $46 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 92¢ $112 12h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Norway 86¢ $52 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 92¢ $80 12h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Norway 86¢ $86 12h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Norway 86¢ $86 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 92¢ $87 12h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 92¢ $37 12h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Under 71¢ $6 14h
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 67¢ $6 14h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 83¢ $17 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 83¢ $16 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 83¢ $55 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 83¢ $17 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 83¢ $62 18h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $264 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $748 19h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Austria 95¢ $175 20h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Austria 95¢ $97 20h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Austria 95¢ $19 20h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Austria 95¢ $97 20h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Austria 95¢ $336 20h
Spread: Argentina (-4.5) BUY Austria 95¢ $93 20h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $122 37h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $84 37h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $15 37h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $7 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $535.89 · official $535.89 (match) · 773 history records