Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5cb6…a2cd crypto 261 markets active 10h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,315 (-20%) realized −$1,169 · open −$146
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%143W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$248
7 days−$1,230
14 days−$1,230
30 days−$1,230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,300
crypto 38% −$118
other 6% −$76
world 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -39.0% -44.8% 28% 28% -45.9%
≤30d 18 -39.0% -44.8% 28% 28% -45.9%
≤90d 19 -33.7% -40.0% 32% 32% -45.6%
all 258 -3.8% -13.0% 55% 47% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 47% -31.1%
10% -21.3% 43% -37.6%
15% -28.9% 39% -43.7%
20% -35.9% 31% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized−$1,169
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses143 / 115
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions3
Markets (closed)258 / 261
History coverage155d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 53¢ 28¢ $500 $259 −$241 (-48%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 51¢ 91¢ $125 $223 +$98 (+78%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 49¢ 48¢ $186 $182 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $202 +$348 +172%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $180 +$112 +62%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $158 −$156 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $191 +$236 +124%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $99 −$98 -99%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $189 −$187 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $192 −$188 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $171 −$168 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $163 −$160 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $173 −$170 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $102 +$122 +120%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $255 −$100 -39%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $254 −$250 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $153 −$84 -55%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $303 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 23 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 20 $20 +$33 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 08 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 06 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 06 $10 +$15 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 06 $10 +$16 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Feb 05 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Feb 05 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 05 $10 +$11 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Feb 05 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 05 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Feb 05 $10 +$37 +373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Feb 05 $160 −$158 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Feb 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 05 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 05 $10 +$13 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 05 $90 +$81 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jan 28 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $127 10h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $189 10h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $507 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $180 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $158 22h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $202 22h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $99 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $189 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $191 25h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $192 25h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 25h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $171 27h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $163 35h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $173 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $102 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 24¢ $102 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 32¢ $154 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $254 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 19¢ $69 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $255 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $153 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $102 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $303 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 122d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $15 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $20 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.68 · official $664.68 (match) · 483 history records