Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cb9…10e7 other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1
other 27% −$13
politics 11% +$1
crypto 10% −$3
finance 7% $0
weather 3% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 30% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.8% -8.8% 30% 0% -9.3%
all 26 -10.3% -18.9% 54% 4% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 4% -12.2%
10% -26.6% 0% -20.6%
15% -33.7% 0% -28.2%
20% -40.2% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage469d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $23 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Apr 02 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $19 $0 +3%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $17 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $17 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 12 $14 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will Trump sign Bitcoin reserve executive order Friday? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 9h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $39 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $39 18h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $39 23h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $39 25h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $4 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 79¢ $7 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 74¢ $10 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $38 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $35 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $35 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 26d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $38 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $38 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $25 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $25 27d
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 438d
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 438d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 438d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 439d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records