Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5C 0x5cba…f7d7 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +106% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +86% what you keep after slip
Net edge+86%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$37
politics 30% −$32
weather 13% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+86.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +223.3% +192.5% 100% 100% +192.5%
≤90d 4 +105.8% +86.2% 50% 50% -12.6%
all 4 +105.8% +86.2% 50% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +86.2% 50% -12.6%
10% +68.4% 50% -21.0%
15% +52.1% 50% -28.6%
20% +37.2% 50% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +106% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage78d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$36 +223%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14? Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 14? Apr 20 $3 +$13 +357%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $55 −$32 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.10 · official $86.11 (match) · 15 history records