Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cbb…8cd7 other 226 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$169 (+4%) realized +$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%52W / 173L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% +$2
other 38% +$155
weather 18% +$1
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +69.2% +53.1% 15% 8% +9.3%
≤90d 67 +26.4% +14.4% 10% 9% +7.6%
all 225 -24.9% -32.1% 23% 4% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 4% -8.1%
10% -38.6% 4% -16.9%
15% -44.5% 4% -24.9%
20% -50.0% 4% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses52 / 173
Open positions1
Markets (closed)225 / 226
History coverage252d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 225 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$101 +2550%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 24 $4 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 12 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 12 $1 +$99 +9405%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $9 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $0 $0 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $5 +$95 +1805%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $109 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $109 4d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 18d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 20d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 22d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 24d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 25d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 25d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 27d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 27d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 27d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 37d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 37d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 37d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 37d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 37d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 38d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 39d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 39d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 39d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 39d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.84 · official $108.84 (match) · 470 history records