Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cbd…20a4 other 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$170 (-3%) realized −$152 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$18
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$55
other 21% −$105
politics 17% +$41
tech 9% −$16
economics 5% −$8
culture 5% −$32
sports 3% −$10
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -5.6% -14.6% 0% 0% -13.3%
≤30d 41 -23.3% -30.6% 5% 0% -19.4%
≤90d 88 -15.1% -23.2% 9% 2% -12.2%
all 95 -13.9% -22.1% 13% 3% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 3% -12.4%
10% -29.5% 3% -20.8%
15% -36.3% 3% -28.5%
20% -42.6% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized−$152
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 83
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)95 / 100
History coverage151d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $278 $281 +$2 (+1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $130 $127 −$2 (-2%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 33¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-73%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-55%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 18 $7 −$1 -10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 07 $11 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 07 $14 $0 -3%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $2 $0 -2%
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 07 $4 $0 -3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $11 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 07 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 06 $7 −$1 -14%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $5 −$3 -50%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $14 −$4 -27%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Qatar recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June? Jun 02 $28 −$1 -4%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m May 29 $16 −$4 -24%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 29 $20 −$5 -27%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 29 $4 $0 -1%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m May 29 $17 −$2 -12%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? May 29 $18 −$4 -19%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 29 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $37 −$3 -8%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.75B and $2.0B at market c May 29 $9 $0 -4%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in May? May 29 $1 $0 -28%
76ers vs. Knicks May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 29 $3 $0 -12%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 25 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May? May 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May? May 24 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $148 in May? May 24 $49 −$2 -4%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $20 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control O May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 14 $11 −$4 -33%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $12 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 14 $97 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m May 08 $34 −$2 -6%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and May 08 $35 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $282 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $132 1h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL No 13¢ $6 34h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day SELL Yes 76¢ $15 34h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day BUY Yes 80¢ $16 34h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY No 14¢ $7 34h
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? SELL Yes 93¢ $19 34h
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 34h
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? BUY Yes $8 11d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 65¢ $4 11d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 65¢ $4 11d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL No 69¢ $14 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY No 70¢ $14 12d
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 12d
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 12d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL No 21¢ $4 12d
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 21¢ $4 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 34¢ $7 12d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 56¢ $11 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 34¢ $7 12d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 56¢ $11 12d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 71¢ $35 12d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY No 72¢ $36 12d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $6 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $3 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 12d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $5 15d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.32 · official $416.32 (match) · 339 history records