Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5C 0x5cc0…895d sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,522 (-29%) realized −$1,522 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$420
7 days−$80
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$1,170
other 26% −$569
crypto 5% +$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 41% -11.1%
≤30d 22 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 41% -11.1%
≤90d 22 -16.0% -24.0% 45% 41% -11.1%
all 26 -25.1% -32.2% 38% 35% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 35% -36.7%
10% -38.7% 35% -42.8%
15% -44.6% 35% -48.3%
20% -50.1% 27% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$186 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,522
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage229d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $235 −$230 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $203 −$146 -72%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$155 +76%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$2 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$119 -59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $306 +$416 +136%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $95 −$94 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 +$89 +44%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $202 +$110 +54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $190 −$188 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $203 −$17 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$182 +90%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $266 +$169 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $128 −$126 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $70 −$68 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13? Nov 13 $326 −$318 -98%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 08 $56 −$1 -2%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $1,070 −$1,070 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 16¢ $57 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $203 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $204 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $51 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $51 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $153 26h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 56¢ $205 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $79 43h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 54¢ $203 47h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 87¢ $283 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 86¢ $93 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 80¢ $346 2d
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $95 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 28¢ $102 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $204 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $291 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $312 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $190 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $203 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $101 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 51¢ $186 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $203 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY 55¢ $5 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records