Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5C 0x5cc3…51c3 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% $0
other 39% $0
crypto 5% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 3% $0
weather 3% $0
sports 3% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 40% 10% -9.5%
all 25 +0.6% -9.0% 56% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage455d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $67 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $3 $0 +16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $8 −$1 -16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $51 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Dec 06 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 23? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 22? Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $0 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes $1 14d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes $3 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $3 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $2 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $0 15d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $2 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $3 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $55 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $55 16d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $12 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $7 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $8 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $20 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 18d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $14 19d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $37 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.86 · official $54.86 (match) · 74 history records