trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 10 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 40% | 10% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 10 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 40% | 10% | -9.5% |
| all | 25 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 56% | 4% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 4% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $55 | $55 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 04 | $107 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | Jun 03 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $67 | +$1 | +1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 02 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 01 | $3 | $0 | +16% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 30 | $8 | −$1 | -16% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 30 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 29 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 28 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 27 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 06 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 | Dec 06 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 20 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 | Apr 06 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? | Apr 05 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 04 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Apr 04 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 02 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 23? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 22? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | -1% |