Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:32:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5C 0x5cc5…b83a crypto 244 markets active 2d ago coverage 109d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$150,132 (+189%) realized +$150,297 · open −$165
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%124W / 118L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$8,649
other 23% +$4,679
tech 7% +$928
sports 3% −$795
world 1% −$636
finance 0% +$4
economics 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +266.6% +231.7% 45% 45% -10.7%
≤30d 47 +90.5% +72.3% 51% 51% -0.2%
≤90d 81 +35.7% +22.8% 44% 40% -9.6%
all 242 +31.8% +19.2% 51% 48% +5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.2% 48% +5.8%
10% ← realistic here +7.8% 45% -4.4%
15% -2.6% 40% -13.6%
20% -12.1% 38% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +36% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$337 vs −$247 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$150,297
Unrealized−$165
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses124 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions3
Markets (closed)242 / 244
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$326
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 92¢ $37 $86 +$49 (+131%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $95 $1 −$94 (-99%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,444 −$1,430 -99%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $243 −$239 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $205 +$2,795 +1361%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $949 −$935 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? Jun 26 $164 −$160 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $261 −$255 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,411 −$1,400 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $223 +$58 +26%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $29 +$25 +89%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 23 $1,431 +$445 +31%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $875 +$1,005 +115%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $650 +$350 +54%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $670 +$330 +49%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $425 −$420 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $689 +$568 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $1,530 −$1,530 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $275 +$225 +82%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $660 +$340 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $344 +$256 +74%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $316 −$135 -43%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $114 −$102 -89%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $194 −$140 -72%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $794 +$1,204 +152%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $141 −$139 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $537 −$537 -100%
Sweden to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +257%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $620 +$370 +60%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,055 +$748 +71%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $576 +$663 +115%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,354 −$1,333 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $454 −$439 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $480 +$507 +106%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,095 −$1,080 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $151 +$1,745 +1153%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $555 +$1,946 +351%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $893 −$407 -46%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 11 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$48 +92%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 11 $987 −$987 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,810 +$929 +51%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$57 +110%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $124 +$96 +78%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $9 −$9 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $330 2d
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 2d
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 2d
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $360 2d
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $190 2d
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $754 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 14¢ $144 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 38¢ $266 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 38¢ $116 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 28¢ $567 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 United States? BUY Yes 16¢ $164 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 12¢ $246 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $471 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $328 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $612 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.33 · official $87.33 (match) · 3500 history records