Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5C 0x5cc5…fc31 other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 91L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$15
politics 25% −$7
sports 12% +$20
crypto 6% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 65 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 104 +0.9% -8.7% 12% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 9% -9.5%
10% -17.4% 7% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 6% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage118d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 20 $241 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $247 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $475 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $239 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $366 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $432 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $425 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $426 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $424 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $242 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 11 $259 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 08 $199 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $404 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $215 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $405 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $249 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $210 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $431 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 05 $218 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 04 $207 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $261 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $255 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $427 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 01 $256 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $261 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $252 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 29 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $470 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 10d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $21 11d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $234 13d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $235 31d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 32d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 42d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $32 51d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $241 60d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $241 61d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $247 61d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $247 62d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $251 62d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $251 62d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $238 62d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $238 62d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 63d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 63d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $217 63d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $217 63d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $237 63d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $237 63d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $218 63d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $218 63d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $239 63d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $239 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 320 history records