Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5C 0x5cc5…475a other 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+28%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$89
sports 21% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +32.7% +20.1% 25% 25% +66.9%
≤30d 5 +6.2% -3.9% 20% 20% +39.0%
≤90d 5 +6.2% -3.9% 20% 20% +39.0%
all 5 +6.2% -3.9% 20% 20% +39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 20% +39.0%
10% -13.1% 20% +25.7%
15% -21.5% 20% +13.6%
20% -29.2% 20% +2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$10 · ×12.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage10d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 64¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-2%)
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? No 38¢ 40¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $32 $0 -1%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $29 −$11 -40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 −$2 -44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $53 +$115 +216%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $79 −$24 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $29 21m
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY No 38¢ $19 23m
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $33 1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 80¢ $4 12h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 80¢ $8 12h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 80¢ $8 12h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 78¢ $3 12h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 82¢ $9 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 12h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 80¢ $24 12h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 82¢ $8 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 13h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 13h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 13h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 13h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 31¢ $53 6d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 9d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $26 9d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $13 9d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 9d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.75 · official $79.75 (match) · 33 history records