Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5cca…fd8c crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate69%34W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$5
crypto 11% +$3
politics 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 +0.2% -9.4% 69% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses34 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage535d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $64 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $61 +$1 +1%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Jan 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 in November? Dec 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in November? Dec 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Nov 03 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 03 $47 +$1 +2%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $43 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 01 $32 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $5,221 −$5 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 10 $17 $0 -0%
Will the People's party win the second most seats in the next Canadian Apr 10 $13 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Golden Knights win the 2025 Preident's Trophy? Mar 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Mar 24 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Oklahoma win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3500 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the Western Conference? Jan 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Jan 11 $20 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 09 $30 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $58 30d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $24 62d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $40 62d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? BUY No 100¢ $20 91d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 99¢ $17 121d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $47 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $8 151d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $55 151d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 180d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 181d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? BUY No 100¢ $43 182d
Will Solana reach $260 in November? BUY No 100¢ $15 212d
Will Solana reach $270 in November? BUY No 100¢ $49 212d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? BUY No 100¢ $10 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $15 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $31 242d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 271d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $24 272d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $29 273d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 301d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $15 301d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $15 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $43 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 364d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $14 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.19 · official $68.19 (match) · 108 history records