Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5C 0x5cd3…e427 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$193 (-10%) realized −$178 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$239
sports 34% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.8% -7.0% 78% 67% -24.5%
≤30d 9 +2.8% -7.0% 78% 67% -24.5%
≤90d 9 +2.8% -7.0% 78% 67% -24.5%
all 9 +2.8% -7.0% 78% 67% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 67% -24.5%
10% -15.9% 67% -31.7%
15% -24.0% 33% -38.3%
20% -31.5% 0% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$274 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized−$178
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 84¢ $148 $139 −$9 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $151 +$52 +34%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $449 −$447 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $164 +$65 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$69 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $152 +$11 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $123 +$30 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $99 +$24 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $148 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $302 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $151 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $229 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $221 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $164 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $152 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $123 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $99 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.58 · official $439.15 · 20 history records