Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:20:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5cd5…ac33
crypto · 451 markets active 7h ago
0.5score
+$192,144 +35%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$169,308 · open +$22,276
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$360,631
Realized+$169,308
Unrealized+$22,276
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses321 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions156
Markets (closed)336 / 451
Avg bet$1,222
Trades / day79.8
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 156 History 336 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$169
7 days−$6,474
14 days+$153,558
30 days+$165,807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 80¢ 99¢ $37,660 $46,586 +$8,926 (+24%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 82¢ $34,728 $38,456 +$3,729 (+11%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $30,257 $31,761 +$1,504 (+5%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $29,666 $31,071 +$1,405 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $27,535 $28,395 +$860 (+3%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $26,102 $26,915 +$813 (+3%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $18,154 $19,479 +$1,326 (+7%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 69¢ 78¢ $11,208 $12,659 +$1,451 (+13%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 93¢ 98¢ $5,994 $6,319 +$325 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 90¢ 97¢ $5,240 $5,617 +$377 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $4,841 $4,766 −$75 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $4,126 $4,203 +$77 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $4,189 $4,045 −$143 (-3%)
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $3,921 $3,986 +$64 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 91¢ 95¢ $3,649 $3,823 +$173 (+5%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 68¢ 96¢ $2,342 $3,303 +$962 (+41%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $3,265 $3,283 +$18 (+1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 98¢ $3,190 $3,231 +$41 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $2,923 $3,073 +$149 (+5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 93¢ 94¢ $2,319 $2,336 +$17 (+1%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 85¢ 90¢ $2,142 $2,261 +$119 (+6%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $2,197 $2,245 +$48 (+2%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $2,228 $2,242 +$14 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 83¢ 91¢ $1,932 $2,131 +$200 (+10%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $2,057 $2,055 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $441 +$3 +1%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $233 −$127 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $881 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $548 +$18 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $218 +$4 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $460 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 11 $865 −$284 -33%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $5,655 +$120 +2%
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary? Jun 11 $214 +$8 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $479 +$19 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $5,119 +$69 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $179 −$145 -81%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? Jun 10 $18 $0 +1%
Will Matt Mahan advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $204 +$45 +22%
Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia? Jun 10 $405 +$28 +7%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 10? Jun 10 $765 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,069 +$19 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 10? Jun 10 $873 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $672 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,203 +$17 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $877 +$11 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $350 +$3 +1%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $1,148 +$15 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $309 +$2 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $314 +$8 +3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,225 +$35 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 9? Jun 09 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 9? Jun 09 $995 +$4 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $1,032 +$26 +2%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $2,312 +$300 +13%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 09 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $319 +$3 +1%
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $534 +$21 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $487 +$34 +7%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $745 +$26 +4%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $332 +$11 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.80 on June 8? Jun 08 $397 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 8? Jun 08 $664 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 8? Jun 08 $756 +$10 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,406 +$36 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $2,354 −$45 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $7,295 +$66 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,011 +$35 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,608 +$41 +3%
Will Solana dip to $60 June 1-7? Jun 08 $579 +$87 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,264 +$102 +8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 1-7? Jun 08 $942 +$46 +5%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 June 1-7? Jun 08 $411 +$33 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 45% +$172,640
crypto 27% −$5,287
other 15% +$18,168
politics 5% +$1,357
culture 3% +$1,101
sports 2% +$2,292
economics 1% +$1,595
tech 1% −$329
finance 0% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 73¢ $162 7h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3,063 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 74¢ $82 7h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $35 7h
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 100¢ $444 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 74¢ $124 7h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? BUY No 99¢ $11 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $216 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 93¢ $71 8h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $14 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 93¢ $135 8h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $74 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 96¢ $0 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 97¢ $334 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 93¢ $1 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 93¢ $515 8h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,439 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 93¢ $277 8h
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 32¢ $69 11h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 92¢ $300 13h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY No 90¢ $21 13h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? BUY No 90¢ $9 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $51 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $205 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $163 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -3.3% -12.5% 91% 4% -16.9%
≤30d 281 +21.7% +10.1% 95% 11% +41.2%
≤90d 336 +25.2% +13.3% 96% 10% +38.0%
all 336 +25.2% +13.3% 96% 10% +38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover79.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.3% 10% +38.0%
10% +2.5% 7% +24.8%
15% ← realistic here -7.4% 6% +12.8%
20% -16.5% 6% +1.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360,631.12 · official $360,551.82 (match) · 3500 history records