Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5C 0x5cd9…86f3 other 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$529 (+4%) realized +$531 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%32W / 55L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$146
14 days+$146
30 days+$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$273
sports 25% +$603
crypto 4% +$21
tech 0% −$2
world 0% −$20
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +59.8% +44.5% 46% 41% -5.2%
≤30d 41 +57.3% +42.4% 46% 41% -0.2%
≤90d 59 +11.5% +0.8% 32% 29% -27.6%
all 87 +18.0% +6.8% 37% 33% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 33% -6.9%
10% -3.4% 31% -15.8%
15% -12.8% 28% -24.0%
20% -21.3% 26% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs −$76 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$531
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses32 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage291d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $41 −$29 -70%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 +$112 +312%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $159 −$56 -35%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $582 −$73 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$112 +222%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $354 +$80 +23%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $77 +$112 +145%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 +$252 +980%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $431 −$32 -7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $501 +$71 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 +$77 +324%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $314 +$8 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 +$65 +63%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$19 +60%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $321 −$232 -72%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$103 +335%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $187 +$141 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $249 −$249 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $370 +$277 +75%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $38 +$48 +125%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $13 +$203 +1519%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 +$17 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $75 +$82 +109%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 23 $199 −$199 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $407 +$490 +120%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,094 −$68 -6%
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-10-22? Apr 10 $85 −$58 -69%
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card) Apr 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-22? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card) Apr 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. Apr 10 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-10-22? Apr 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Apr 10 $134 −$134 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 5? Apr 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 94¢ $213 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 96¢ $218 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $28 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 12¢ $10 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 26¢ $41 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 97¢ $147 23h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 23¢ $36 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $97 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 24h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $117 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 18¢ $26 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $49 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $492 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 59¢ $60 29h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $50 31h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $17 32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 13¢ $2 45h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 15¢ $3 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $434 46h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $354 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 231 history records