Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cdd…9688 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate89%32W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$2
politics 45% −$10
other 1% −$1
sports 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 18 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -1.0% -10.4% 89% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 11% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 11% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 8% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses32 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage608d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? Jun 09 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 05 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? Jun 03 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? May 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22? May 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? Apr 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 15? Apr 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 10? Apr 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 8? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 28? Apr 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 21? Mar 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Mar 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? Feb 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? Feb 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Jan 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Jan 22 $10 $0 +1%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Nov 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $19 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Tammy Baldwin" during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1? Nov 04 $9 +$9 +100%
Will GD win a majority in Georgia parliamentary election? Nov 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series? Nov 01 $10 +$9 +85%
Colts vs. Texans Oct 28 $11 +$5 +45%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 25 $653 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 32h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 5? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 34d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 41d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 42d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 44d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 69d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 72d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 77d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 79d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 90d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? BUY No 100¢ $31 120d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $15 139d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $31 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $30 141d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 146d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 223d
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? BUY No 99¢ $10 223d
Bucks vs. Pelicans BUY Bucks 80¢ $8 515d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 525d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.83 · official $30.83 (match) · 74 history records