Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5ce3…57e3 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+5%) realized +$157 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%23W / 16L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day135.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +10.1% -0.4% 59% 46% -7.7%
≤30d 39 +10.1% -0.4% 59% 46% -7.7%
≤90d 39 +10.1% -0.4% 59% 46% -7.7%
all 39 +10.1% -0.4% 59% 46% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.4% 46% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -10.0% 41% -16.6%
15% -18.7% 28% -24.6%
20% -26.6% 23% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$31 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$157
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses23 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day135.0
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 40¢ 30¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $143 −$7 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$15 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $40 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 28 $55 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 27 $90 −$87 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$22 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 27 $82 −$10 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 27 $108 −$36 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$15 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $34 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $67 +$41 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$18 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$21 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $272 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $61 −$59 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 27 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$20 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 27 $228 −$84 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $98 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $117 +$41 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $39 +$60 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $397 +$152 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $149 −$17 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $170 −$71 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $91 +$74 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $22 +$11 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $32 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $42 −$9 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $14 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $55 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $14 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $18 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $24 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $12 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $22 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $22 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $18 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $23 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $14 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $31 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $24 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.98 · official $12.42 · 168 history records