Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5ce3…f779 sports 422 markets active 12h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,147 (+2%) realized +$2,445 · open +$1,702
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate62%234W / 144L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$490per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$16,013now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$38
14 days+$278
30 days+$1,474
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$6,610
politics 34% −$2,158
sports 12% −$2,281
crypto 3% +$137
tech 3% +$2,039
world 2% −$272
economics 1% +$56
finance 0% +$12
culture 0% −$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.2% -6.6% 76% 21% -8.9%
≤30d 62 +0.3% -9.2% 69% 29% -2.5%
≤90d 134 +16.8% +5.6% 68% 34% +2.0%
all 378 +1.3% -8.3% 62% 35% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 35% -8.4%
10% -17.1% 22% -17.1%
15% -25.1% 16% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 11% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$180 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$16,013
Realized+$2,445
Unrealized+$1,702
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses234 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions43
Markets (closed)378 / 422
History coverage568d
Avg bet$490
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $4,182 $4,694 +$512 (+12%)
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? Yes 65¢ 84¢ $2,208 $2,850 +$642 (+29%)
Will The Clearing Company self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $1,641 $1,717 +$76 (+5%)
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $1,320 $1,348 +$28 (+2%)
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? No 64¢ 82¢ $920 $1,185 +$265 (+29%)
Will Cboe Futures Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $609 $636 +$27 (+4%)
Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 81¢ 87¢ $418 $448 +$29 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $396 $394 −$1 (-0%)
Will ForecastEx self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 93¢ $337 $375 +$38 (+11%)
Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 90¢ 91¢ $249 $252 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-21 House seat? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $221 $229 +$8 (+4%)
Will the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $189 $197 +$8 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-23 House seat? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $156 $155 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-38 House seat? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $139 $149 +$9 (+7%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-02 House seat? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $123 $148 +$25 (+20%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $112 $119 +$7 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party win the FL-05 House seat? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $93 $108 +$14 (+15%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 72¢ $105 $107 +$2 (+2%)
Will Aristotle self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 81¢ $73 $106 +$33 (+45%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 45¢ 36¢ $121 $95 −$26 (-21%)
Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 86¢ 92¢ $78 $83 +$5 (+7%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $78 $82 +$4 (+5%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 44¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+9%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 43¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $42 $57 +$15 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Jun 18 $44 +$2 +4%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $139 +$20 +14%
Will Efraim Filho win the Governor of Paraíba election? Jun 18 $41 +$42 +103%
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zeala Jun 18 $178 +$26 +15%
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $709 +$150 +21%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $989 −$235 -24%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $80 +$25 +32%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $161 +$6 +4%
Hyperbeat FDV above $25M one day after launch? Jun 16 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $211 −$47 -22%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $98 −$93 -95%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c Jun 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $0 $0 +95%
NBA Finals: Player to Record a 5x5? Jun 14 $419 −$51 -12%
Will any player score 50+ points in any game during the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $82 −$11 -13%
Will Victor Wembanyama score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Jalen Brunson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $28 +$1 +5%
Will OG Anunoby score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $27 $0 +2%
Will OG Anunoby score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Will Dylan Harper score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA F Jun 14 $26 +$1 +5%
Will Victor Wembanyama score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $24 +$2 +8%
Will Stephon Castle score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $43 +$2 +4%
Will Devin Vassell score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $33 +$1 +4%
Will De'Aaron Fox score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 14 $1,708 +$127 +7%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $407 +$14 +4%
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States mi Jun 14 $1,061 +$35 +3%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midte Jun 12 $153 +$14 +9%
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 11 $28 −$3 -10%
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? Jun 09 $260 +$10 +4%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $131 −$6 -4%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $42 +$20 +47%
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by Jun 09 $336 +$50 +15%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games? Jun 08 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $450 $0 +0%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $740 +$165 +22%
Will Josh Hart score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $49 +$2 +5%
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States m Jun 05 $92 +$18 +20%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 04 $244 +$7 +3%
Will Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $1,227 +$660 +54%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 04 $1,889 −$7 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 02 $88 −$10 -11%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Trump say "Goat" in May? Jun 02 $59 +$6 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $2 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $3 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 11h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 13h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 13h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 69¢ $16 13h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $11 13h
Will Rick Jackson win the Georgia Republican Governor Primary Runoff b BUY Yes 69¢ $12 13h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $22 14h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 14h
Will any player break the record for lowest score in a round at the 20 BUY Yes 7¢ $1 14h
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat? BUY Yes 80¢ $161 15h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? BUY Yes 82¢ $12 15h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-06 House seat? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 15h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 15h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 73¢ $32 15h
Will Efraim Filho win the Governor of Paraíba election? SELL Yes 41¢ $83 16h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $92 16h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 16h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 16h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,013.32 · official $16,013.08 (match) · 3348 history records