Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5ce5…64d8 other 77 markets active 19h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+0%) realized +$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate22%17W / 59L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
politics 14% −$9
other 14% +$22
sports 2% +$69
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.3% -22.5% 14% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 22 +2.3% -7.5% 14% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 62 +7.3% -2.9% 21% 15% -7.9%
all 76 +5.9% -4.2% 22% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 12% -9.2%
10% -13.4% 12% -17.9%
15% -21.7% 12% -25.8%
20% -29.4% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$2 · ×5.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized+$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses17 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage610d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $106 +$1 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $302 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $8 +$11 +152%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $35 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $64 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $168 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $150 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 18 $12 +$17 +152%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $132 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $143 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $19 +$8 +44%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $126 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $127 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $254 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 26 $130 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $265 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $131 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $389 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 23 $249 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $134 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $136 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $132 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $260 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $129 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $133 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 18h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 19h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 43h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 44h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 4d
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $94 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 5d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $7 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 7d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $106 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 39¢ $8 15d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $32 18d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $32 18d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 19d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.00 · official $94.00 (match) · 298 history records