Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5ce5…7d05 crypto 8 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-40%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip
Net edge-78%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-76.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -74.0% -76.5% 12% 12% -75.7%
≤30d 8 -74.0% -76.5% 12% 12% -75.7%
≤90d 8 -74.0% -76.5% 12% 12% -75.7%
all 8 -74.0% -76.5% 12% 12% -75.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.5% 12% -75.7%
10% -78.7% 12% -78.0%
15% -80.8% 12% -80.1%
20% -82.6% 12% -82.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$18 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $44 −$20 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $44 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$20 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $34 −$31 -91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records