trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +3.7% | -6.2% | 50% | 0% | -7.2% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +2.0% | -7.8% | 27% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +2.0% | -7.8% | 27% | 0% | -8.8% |
| all | 23 | -5.9% | -14.8% | 43% | 0% | -11.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.8% | 0% | -11.5% |
| 10% | -23.0% | 0% | -20.0% |
| 15% | -30.4% | 0% | -27.7% |
| 20% | -37.2% | 0% | -34.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 87¢ | 86¢ | $37 | $37 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 24 | $4 | $0 | +10% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 24 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 23 | $36 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Jun 09 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York | Jun 27 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship | Apr 17 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Apr 16 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? | Mar 28 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? | Mar 24 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 46-47°F on March 20? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 20 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Mar 09 | $1 | −$1 | -67% |