Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5ce7…4838 politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$3
other 35% −$12
politics 14% $0
crypto 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 0% -9.1%
all 49 +0.9% -8.7% 41% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -10.1%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.7%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.6%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage323d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 84¢ 84¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $37 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $48 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $48 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $43 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $78 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $18 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 29 $43 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $45 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 15 $6 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in August? Aug 13 $40 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 12 $3 $0 -5%
Will a dozen eggs be below $3.25 in July? Aug 11 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 11 $41 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 10 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3800 on August 5 at 5PM ET Aug 10 $36 +$1 +1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 08 $12 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 08 $8 $0 +4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times August 1–August 8? Aug 06 $20 −$13 -64%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 04 $37 $0 -1%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 04 $1 $0 -12%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 04 $39 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $48 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $48 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $48 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $38 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $6 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $6 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $47 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $48 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $48 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $43 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $48 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $48 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $28 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $29 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 16d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 17d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.16 · official $48.16 (match) · 158 history records