Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5C 0x5ce8…ff78 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7 (+4%) realized +$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$7
crypto 21% $0
sports 5% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +5.4% -4.6% 18% 18% +3.0%
≤30d 11 +5.4% -4.6% 18% 18% +3.0%
≤90d 11 +5.4% -4.6% 18% 18% +3.0%
all 11 +5.4% -4.6% 18% 18% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 18% +3.0%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 18% -6.9%
15% -22.1% 18% -15.9%
20% -29.7% 18% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×10.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)11 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $3 $0 -4%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 20 $3 $0 -3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $2 $0 -5%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -16%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 −$3 -26%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 1h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $3 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 64¢ $7 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 5h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 5h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $10 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 6h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 6h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.75 · official $125.76 (match) · 49 history records