Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:07:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5ce8…75f2 sports 150 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$902 (-18%) realized −$876 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%46W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.9pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$175
7 days+$6
14 days−$636
30 days−$1,473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,393
other 2% −$91
crypto 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -14.1% -22.3% 44% 44% -9.0%
≤30d 146 -42.8% -48.2% 32% 32% -42.3%
≤90d 146 -42.8% -48.2% 32% 32% -42.3%
all 146 -42.8% -48.2% 32% 32% -42.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.2% 32% -42.3%
10% ← realistic here -53.2% 32% -47.8%
15% -57.7% 25% -52.8%
20% -61.8% 21% -57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$25 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$876
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses46 / 100
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions4
Markets (closed)146 / 150
History coverage20d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Flame Team 46¢ 46¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Flame Team 39¢ 30¢ $31 $24 −$8 (-24%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Flame Team 22¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 16 $21 −$21 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $52 +$77 +148%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$37 +182%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $71 +$40 +56%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $71 +$37 +52%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $66 +$42 +64%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$22 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$4 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 +$6 +206%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$7 +137%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $34 −$33 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $55 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$28 +68%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$5 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $55 +$14 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $60 +$46 +77%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $5 +$3 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$4 +78%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$24 +237%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 −$5 -47%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $30 +$34 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $31 −$1 -3%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $92 −$49 -54%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $10 +$4 +41%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $72 −$26 -36%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $11 −$1 -9%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $10 +$5 +54%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - NODWIN Clu Jun 09 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 39¢ $32 8m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 50¢ $51 10m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL 4ikibamboni 67¢ $49 11m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 56¢ $3 12m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 31¢ $10 28m
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 68¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 18¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 26¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Flame Team 26¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 22¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY Estar Backs 5¢ $5 16h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 28¢ $20 16h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 20¢ $15 18h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 25¢ $5 18h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner BUY Estar Backs 24¢ $10 18h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY Estar Backs 17¢ $10 18h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY Estar Backs 14¢ $6 18h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 11¢ $2 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer BUY Lindorfitos 5¢ $2 20h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 98¢ $129 24h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 98¢ $58 24h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 34¢ $20 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Yakult Brothers 99¢ $110 25h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $20 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 61¢ $30 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 42¢ $19 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 68¢ $20 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 61¢ $20 26h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $12 26h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $108 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.12 · official $134.67 · 433 history records