Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5C
0x5ced…5d08
world · 64 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$14 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses18 / 44
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage514d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 2 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 36¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $66 −$6 -9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $98 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $26 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $76 +$3 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $61 +$2 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $94 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $32 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $124 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $64 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $31 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $61 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $17 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $29 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $30 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $11 $0 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 31 $15 $0 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 31 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% −$3
other 21% +$3
politics 17% $0
sports 11% −$10
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $17 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $17 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $6 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $8 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $18 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 38¢ $36 16h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $35 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $35 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $25 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $22 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $10 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 4d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $11 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $22 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $19 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $2 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $5 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $26 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 15d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $37 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 62 -2.1% -11.4% 29% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -10.0%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.25 · official $0.00 (match) · 238 history records