Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cf1…f25b crypto 430 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1307 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$432 (-4%) realized −$432 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate26%214W / 609L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1306.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$707
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1307 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-52.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 710 -57.1% -61.2% 21% 18% -54.2%
≤30d 823 -47.6% -52.6% 26% 22% -46.6%
≤90d 823 -47.6% -52.6% 26% 22% -46.6%
all 823 -47.6% -52.6% 26% 22% -46.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1306.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.6% 22% -46.6%
10% ← realistic here -57.1% 20% -51.7%
15% -61.3% 18% -56.4%
20% -65.1% 17% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -96% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$432
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses214 / 609
Open positions0
Markets (closed)823 / 430
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1306.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 823 Trades
no open positions (497 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$26 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$14 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 +$1 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.65 · official $84.92 · 3500 history records