Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5C 0x5cf7…575c politics 218 markets active 1h ago coverage 609d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$240 (-9%) realized −$218 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate46%98W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$11
politics 43% −$187
crypto 7% −$52
finance 3% +$17
other 3% −$15
sports 0% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +17.4% +6.2% 100% 67% -2.0%
≤30d 5 +33.4% +20.7% 100% 80% +32.4%
≤90d 13 -36.7% -42.7% 46% 38% +27.7%
all 211 -28.2% -35.0% 46% 30% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 30% -17.0%
10% -41.3% 20% -24.9%
15% -46.9% 14% -32.2%
20% -52.1% 9% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

609d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$218
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses98 / 113
Open positions7
Markets (closed)211 / 218
History coverage609d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $275 $267 −$7 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 79¢ 55¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-31%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 72¢ $13 $14 +$2 (+13%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 91¢ 91¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by by June 30? Yes 56¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $40 +$15 +37%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 17 $14 +$2 +14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $177 +$2 +1%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 27 $5 +$1 +14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 27 $167 +$167 +100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Qu Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Apr 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31? Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 25 $8 +$4 +43%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 05 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Mar 05 $4 +$1 +16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $4 $0 +4%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $1 $0 +5%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31? Jan 02 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31? Jan 02 $30 −$16 -53%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 02 $4 +$1 +18%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 02 $5 +$1 +15%
Starmer out in 2025? Jan 02 $7 $0 +7%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Jan 02 $33 +$3 +8%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Jan 02 $18 +$5 +25%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 12 $2 $0 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 03 $65 −$54 -83%
Will Russia capture Lyman by November 30? Dec 01 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30? Nov 29 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025? Nov 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19? Nov 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Military Edition Nov 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2025? Nov 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14? Nov 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31? Nov 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31? Nov 16 $2 $0 +9%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Nov 13 $6 +$1 +11%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Nov 13 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Nov 13 $12 −$7 -59%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5? Nov 11 $2 +$4 +185%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Nov 07 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $1 $0 +11%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $15 +$6 +43%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31? Nov 03 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31? Nov 03 $10 +$4 +43%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Oct 18 $7 −$4 -55%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 05 $2 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 04 $33 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $42 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 70¢ $42 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $27 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $27 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $16 1h
Iran coup attempt by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $58 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 89¢ $10 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $176 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 63¢ $50 7d
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $40 20d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $50 20d
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $12 53d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 86¢ $3 104d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $1 104d
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? SELL Yes 58¢ $2 108d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 4¢ $2 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.96 · official $348.97 (match) · 956 history records