Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5C 0x5cf8…1cf5 crypto 757 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (102 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$283 (+5%) realized +$284 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate73%554W / 202L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day102.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$67
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (102 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 749 -3.8% -12.9% 73% 48% -8.3%
≤30d 756 -3.5% -12.7% 73% 48% -8.3%
≤90d 756 -3.5% -12.7% 73% 48% -8.3%
all 756 -3.5% -12.7% 73% 48% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover102.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 48% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 35% -17.0%
15% -28.7% 19% -25.1%
20% -35.7% 16% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses554 / 202
Open positions1
Markets (closed)756 / 757
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day102.5
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 756 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 88¢ 64¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 192 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $33 −$30 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $33 +$10 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $65 −$63 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $33 +$12 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 24 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $62 −$61 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$11 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$12 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $31 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $32 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.44 · official $0.81 (match) · 1648 history records