Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5C 0x5cf9…efa4 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+6%) realized +$14 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +121% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$21
other 12% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+99.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +120.7% +99.7% 68% 64% +0.0%
≤30d 22 +120.7% +99.7% 68% 64% +0.0%
≤90d 22 +120.7% +99.7% 68% 64% +0.0%
all 22 +120.7% +99.7% 68% 64% +0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +99.7% 64% +0.0%
10% ← realistic here +80.5% 45% -9.5%
15% +63.1% 27% -18.3%
20% +47.1% 27% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +121% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +194% → late +47% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)22 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi Ayumi Miyamoto 61¢ 76¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $5 +$13 +262%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $26 +$5 +19%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $1 +$6 +536%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $5 +$7 +147%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $3 +$1 +29%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $1 +$2 +152%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $5 +$1 +27%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +33%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jun 18 $1 +$2 +146%
Royan: Max Alcala Gurri vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 18 $61 +$8 +13%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $30 +$1 +3%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Leo Raquillet Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $2 −$1 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $5 39m
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Sae Noguchi BUY Ayumi Miyamoto 61¢ $10 44m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 100¢ $18 47m
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 80¢ $25 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 40¢ $7 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries $0 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 43¢ $5 2h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles $1 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 17¢ $1 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 2h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 27¢ $5 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 98¢ $13 3h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 66¢ $5 3h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 39¢ $5 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres $1 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres $1 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL Texas Rangers 95¢ $1 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 100¢ $40 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 88¢ $1 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 21¢ $0 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 21¢ $2 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 99¢ $40 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians $1 3h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 11¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.07 · official $33.08 (match) · 62 history records