Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cfb…1e80 politics 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% $0
politics 32% $0
world 27% $0
tech 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +0.0% -9.5% 42% 0% -9.4%
all 42 +0.1% -9.5% 36% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage323d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $4 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $81 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $11 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $41 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $44 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $47 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 03 $109 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 03 $14 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix? Aug 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Cynthia Ní Mhurchú win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $2 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 31 $2 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 30 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $26 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $26 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $31 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $41 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $14 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $27 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $41 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 80¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 80¢ $39 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 80¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 78¢ $17 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 78¢ $23 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $14 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records