Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cfc…fe75 other 18 markets active 4h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-3%) realized −$6 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$9
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.3% -27.9% 38% 23% -12.0%
≤30d 13 -20.3% -27.9% 38% 23% -12.0%
≤90d 13 -20.3% -27.9% 38% 23% -12.0%
all 13 -20.3% -27.9% 38% 23% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 23% -12.0%
10% -34.8% 23% -20.4%
15% -41.1% 23% -28.1%
20% -46.9% 15% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 88¢ 82¢ $40 $37 −$2 (-6%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 79¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 +$4 +188%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $90 +$1 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +38%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 18 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +262%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $146 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $20 4h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 5h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 17h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 38h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 38h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 38h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 28¢ $4 39h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 99¢ $90 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 61¢ $10 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 88¢ $40 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 98¢ $3 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 98¢ $146 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $8 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.97 · official $68.97 (match) · 27 history records