Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5C 0x5cfe…8052 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$0 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$22
other 31% +$2
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 38% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 38% -9.6%
≤90d 29 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 38% -9.6%
all 29 -11.1% -19.6% 48% 38% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 38% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 28% -18.2%
15% -34.3% 17% -26.1%
20% -40.8% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $39 $58 +$19 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 −$12 -76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $58 +$13 +23%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 -14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 −$5 -54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +56%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 +$8 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$6 +28%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$2 +42%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$12 +158%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$2 +37%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $23 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$4 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$4 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $13 −$1 -4%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $32 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -72%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -39%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$1 -14%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $50 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $40 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 18¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $18 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $12 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 35¢ $11 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 10¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 11¢ $2 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 10h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 22¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 22¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $6 11h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 15¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 31¢ $9 12h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 24¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 15¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 91¢ $27 13h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 71¢ $21 13h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 40¢ $8 14h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 38¢ $8 14h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 40¢ $8 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.13 · official $58.13 (match) · 86 history records