Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5C 0x5cff…f6c8 crypto 11 markets active 3d ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$937per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$9
sports 12% +$1
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -80.0% -81.9% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 5 -80.0% -81.9% 20% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 6 -66.6% -69.8% 33% 0% -10.3%
all 14 -35.6% -41.8% 64% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 0% -9.6%
10% -47.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -52.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -57.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions46
Markets (closed)14 / 11
History coverage127d
Avg bet$937
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $89 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1043%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+706%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+641%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+594%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+328%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+275%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+251%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+133%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+92%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+56%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+45%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? May 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 28? Mar 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 Feb 28 $301 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 13? Feb 19 $940 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $2,537 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 11? Feb 12 $2,534 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 10? Feb 11 $2,531 +$3 +0%
76ers vs. Trail Blazers Feb 10 $1,279 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $81 32d
Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $6 51d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 96d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 112d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 1 BUY No 100¢ $301 120d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on February 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $940 127d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? BUY No 100¢ $2,537 128d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on February 11? BUY No 100¢ $2,534 129d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,280 130d
76ers vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 100¢ $1,254 130d
76ers vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 100¢ $25 130d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,251 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.14 · official $102.14 (match) · 103 history records