Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5D 0x5d01…6ca9 sports 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$553 (+16%) realized +$989 · open −$436
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$170
14 days+$170
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$489
world 16% −$147
economics 13% +$83
finance 4% −$38
tech 3% +$57
politics 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +95.1% +76.5% 67% 67% +64.8%
≤30d 4 +78.8% +61.8% 75% 75% +40.4%
≤90d 34 +16.2% +5.1% 53% 47% +31.3%
all 39 +14.7% +3.8% 54% 44% +28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 44% +28.6%
10% -6.2% 36% +16.3%
15% -15.2% 26% +5.0%
20% -23.6% 21% -5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$18 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.75 per $1 lost it wins $3.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$612
Realized+$989
Unrealized−$436
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions14
Markets (closed)39 / 53
History coverage98d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 44¢ 20¢ $440 $200 −$240 (-55%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 66¢ 72¢ $99 $107 +$8 (+8%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 69¢ 84¢ $59 $71 +$12 (+21%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? No 74¢ 58¢ $74 $58 −$17 (-22%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $32 $52 +$20 (+61%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $197 $28 −$169 (-86%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+23%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-11%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 37¢ 13¢ $37 $13 −$24 (-65%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $22 $11 −$11 (-50%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-12%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-46%)
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 12 $120 +$57 +48%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $46 +$154 +338%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? May 29 $221 +$66 +30%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? May 15 $534 +$719 +135%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 12 $29 −$2 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Apr 30 $21 +$6 +28%
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? Apr 27 $24 −$3 -13%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Apr 27 $30 −$8 -25%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $14 +$2 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $56 +$20 +37%
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Apr 21 $50 −$17 -33%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $234 −$159 -68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Apr 17 $37 −$34 -93%
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026? Apr 12 $18 −$9 -49%
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? Apr 12 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Apr 12 $21 −$5 -26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 12 $9 −$2 -22%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March? Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in March? Apr 10 $58 +$5 +8%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in March? Apr 10 $71 +$19 +27%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in March? Apr 10 $65 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in March? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -87%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March? Apr 10 $4 +$11 +280%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? Apr 10 $28 +$28 +100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $16 +$13 +81%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 05 $92 +$11 +12%
Counter-Strike: FarmVille vs Akimbo Esports (BO3) - Dust2.us Eagle Mas Apr 05 $1 $0 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 05 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Mar 24 $70 +$21 +30%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? Mar 21 $1 $0 -33%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Mar 20 $60 +$55 +91%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Mar 20 $56 +$30 +54%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Mar 19 $10 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Mar 19 $11 +$2 +16%
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China? Mar 16 $10 +$1 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Mar 12 $65 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $78 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL No 85¢ $57 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 2h
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 2h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $78 3d
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 3d
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY No 74¢ $75 4d
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 64¢ $22 4d
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY No 63¢ $22 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? SELL No 89¢ $177 4d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? SELL No 84¢ $287 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 22d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 25d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 26d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 26d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? BUY Yes 41¢ $17 26d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 26d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 26d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? BUY No 63¢ $65 26d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 66¢ $101 26d
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? BUY No 59¢ $120 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $612.23 · official $612.18 (match) · 298 history records