Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d09…7dfb sports 426 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6,122 (-7%) realized −$6,122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate66%281W / 145L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day92.0pace
Fees−$106est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$3,682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$3,549
other 3% −$483
crypto 0% −$6
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -9.2% -17.9% 53% 27% -9.5%
≤30d 367 -16.0% -24.0% 69% 9% -13.2%
≤90d 426 -16.3% -24.3% 66% 10% -13.5%
all 426 -16.3% -24.3% 66% 10% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 10% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 7% -21.8%
15% -38.2% 6% -29.4%
20% -44.2% 5% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$41 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses281 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$106
Open positions0
Markets (closed)426 / 426
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$214
Trades / day92.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 426 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +146%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $214 +$6 +3%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $194 +$26 +13%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $32 −$31 -97%
Algeria to win the second half? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $9 +$1 +12%
Jordan to win the second half? Jun 23 $3 $0 +20%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Second half draw? Jun 23 $3 +$3 +76%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Second half draw? Jun 23 $29 −$10 -35%
Senegal to win the second half? Jun 23 $28 −$1 -3%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 23 $15 +$12 +80%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $186 +$14 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $484 +$132 +27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $589 +$27 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $59 −$59 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $59 +$42 +72%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $83 +$18 +21%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $664 +$346 +52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $502 −$2 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $855 −$355 -42%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 $0 +3%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $16 −$2 -13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $26 $0 +1%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$3 -13%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18 $0 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $9 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 91¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 40¢ $2 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 14¢ $7 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 14¢ $7 1h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $18 1h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 97¢ $19 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 14¢ $3 1h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 14¢ $7 1h
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY No 14¢ $7 1h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 88¢ $44 1h
Jordan to win the second half? BUY No 83¢ $3 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Second half draw? BUY No 56¢ $3 17h
Algeria to win the second half? BUY No 56¢ $3 17h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $8 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $9 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 25¢ $1 19h
Senegal to win the second half? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 20h
Senegal to win the second half? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 20h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Second half draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $13 20h
Senegal to win the second half? BUY No 97¢ $26 20h
Norway to win the second half? BUY No 42¢ $12 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 3500 history records