Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d0c…fbd7 politics 73 markets active 4d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,518 (+2%) realized +$2,518 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate67%49W / 24L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$1,765per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$945
14 days+$361
30 days+$1,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$1,752
politics 23% +$1,182
crypto 23% +$1,641
other 5% +$575
tech 0% +$4
sports 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +20.3% +8.8% 80% 20% -2.6%
≤30d 70 +2.4% -7.4% 67% 17% -8.4%
≤90d 73 +2.6% -7.2% 67% 19% -8.4%
all 73 +2.6% -7.2% 67% 19% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.2% 19% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 8% -17.2%
15% -24.2% 3% -25.2%
20% -31.6% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$1,180) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$161 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,518
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses49 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage47d
Avg bet$1,765
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $276 +$4 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $536 −$32 -6%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $924 +$278 +30%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $6,161 +$360 +6%
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $70 +$4 +6%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $406 +$15 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,654 +$79 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $247 −$45 -18%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $2,003 +$179 +9%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $62 +$102 +166%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
FDA approves Vepdegestrant? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2,553 +$412 +16%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $3,852 +$8 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $15,863 −$1,953 -12%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $418 −$9 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $5,074 +$524 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $495 +$134 +27%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $200 +$15 +7%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +1%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $283 −$15 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $11,224 −$859 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $1,207 +$4 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $915 +$25 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $10,500 −$549 -5%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $13 −$2 -17%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $683 +$143 +21%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $24 −$19 -79%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $1,030 +$67 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $28,795 +$1,643 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $395 −$103 -26%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 03 $173 −$11 -6%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $1,134 −$18 -2%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $2,680 −$37 -1%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 03 $233 −$5 -2%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? Jun 03 $989 +$36 +4%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $235 +$59 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $1,180 +$63 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $436 +$5 +1%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $462 +$38 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $3,851 +$172 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $888 −$15 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $1,784 +$53 +3%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum Jun 01 $89 −$84 -95%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $14 −$14 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $204 −$2 -1%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? Jun 01 $46 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $280 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $504 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,611 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,600 4d
Will Bret Johnsen be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 94¢ $70 4d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $66 4d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $91 4d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $36 4d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $161 4d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 4d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $10 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $134 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $15 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $4 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $4 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $168 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $421 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $242 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,532 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $57 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $202 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $135 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $42 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $13 5d
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $94 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $138 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $138 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $536 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 984 history records