Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:22:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d18…8fa3 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$114 (+8%) realized +$81 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$57
sports 23% +$53
politics 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 50% +2.8%
≤30d 10 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 50% +2.8%
≤90d 10 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 50% +2.8%
all 10 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 50% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 50% +2.8%
10% -14.9% 50% -7.0%
15% -23.1% 50% -16.0%
20% -30.6% 40% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$39 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$797
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)10 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $151 $185 +$34 (+22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $115 $127 +$12 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $115 $111 −$4 (-4%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 57¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? No 75¢ 74¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 58¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? No 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner Jun 27 $51 +$44 +86%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $30 +$36 +119%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 −$24 -98%
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 27 $49 +$25 +50%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $25 −$25 -98%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $80 +$96 +121%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $51 −$2 -5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $118 −$115 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Gigi Hadid be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? BUY No 54¢ $20 3h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 19¢ $52 5h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 75¢ $40 5h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 6h
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 6h
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 6h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 12h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner BUY Egypt 53¢ $51 12h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $30 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 12h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $74 13h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 66¢ $49 15h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $24 15h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $25 16h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 16h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $176 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $61 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $19 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $48 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 23h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $103 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $118 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $797.48 · official $797.48 (match) · 39 history records