Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5d18…4972
politics · 29 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$256,764 -5463%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$369,603 · open +$10,981
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Net worth$366,902
Realized−$369,603
Unrealized+$10,981
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses4 / 183
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Open positions76
Markets (closed)187 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day3439.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 76 History 187 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$369,603
7 days−$369,603
14 days−$369,603
30 days−$369,603
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $17,466 $18,875 +$1,409 (+8%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $17,052 $18,270 +$1,218 (+7%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11,436 $17,154 +$5,718 (+50%)
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $15,813 $16,943 +$1,130 (+7%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $14,880 $15,943 +$1,063 (+7%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $14,755 $15,809 +$1,054 (+7%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $14,518 $15,555 +$1,037 (+7%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $13,845 $15,284 +$1,439 (+10%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $13,957 $14,732 +$775 (+6%)
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $13,412 $14,370 +$958 (+7%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $13,149 $14,245 +$1,096 (+8%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $12,713 $13,621 +$908 (+7%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $16,001 $13,277 −$2,724 (-17%)
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $12,479 $13,259 +$780 (+6%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $11,288 $12,228 +$941 (+8%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $10,973 $11,810 +$837 (+8%)
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $10,930 $11,537 +$607 (+6%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $10,617 $11,502 +$885 (+8%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $10,483 $11,232 +$749 (+7%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $9,557 $10,353 +$796 (+8%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $7,836 $9,093 +$1,257 (+16%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11,964 $8,973 −$2,991 (-25%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $8,162 $8,842 +$680 (+8%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $8,097 $8,772 +$675 (+8%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $7,082 $7,436 +$354 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ernest Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 12 $966 −$966 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 12 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Will Tetairoa McMillan be the 2025-2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Ye Jun 12 $334 −$287 -86%
Will Myles Garrett win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will Germany win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $6,727 −$6,727 -100%
Spread: Mavericks (-1.5) Jun 12 $4,620 −$4,620 -100%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $74 −$61 -83%
Will Aidan Hutchinson be the 2025-2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5) Jun 12 $674 −$674 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Jun 12 $1,883 −$1,883 -100%
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) Jun 12 $1,302 −$1,302 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $330 −$101 -30%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $3,460 −$3,474 -100%
Spread: Magic (-2.5) Jun 12 $258 −$258 -100%
Spread: Magic (-2.5) Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship? Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jun 12 $3,900 −$3,900 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Jun 12 $916 −$916 -100%
Will Fred Couples win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Tyrese Maxey win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $420 −$420 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-3.5) Jun 12 $4,160 −$4,160 -100%
Clippers vs. 76ers Jun 12 $201 −$201 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jun 12 $14,879 −$14,879 -100%
Lakers vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5 Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -71%
Spread: Nuggets (-2.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will David Bailey be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Pistons vs. Lakers Jun 12 $2,640 −$2,640 -100%
Maduro out by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Magic (-4.5) Jun 12 $825 −$825 -100%
Will Aidan Hutchinson win the 2025-26 NFL DPOY? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 12 $340 −$340 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 12 $2,904 −$2,904 -100%
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 12 $4,663 −$4,691 -101%
Spread: Mavericks (-5.5) Jun 12 $1,583 −$1,583 -100%
Will Micah Parsons win the 2025-26 NFL DPOY? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Trail Blazers (-8.5) Jun 12 $665 −$665 -100%
Hawks vs. Nuggets Jun 12 $221 −$221 -100%
Bulls vs. Hawks Jun 12 $9,780 −$9,780 -100%
Will Mike Vrabel win NFL Coach of the Year? Jun 12 $382 −$382 -100%
Will the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $5,600 −$5,600 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Jun 12 $1,682 −$1,682 -100%
Spread: Mavericks (-4.5) Jun 12 $1,590 −$1,590 -100%
Will Christian McCaffrey win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Jun 12 $44 −$34 -78%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 225.5 Jun 12 $6,378 −$6,442 -101%
Thunder vs. Raptors Jun 12 $9,800 −$9,800 -100%
Spread: Bulls (-8.5) Jun 12 $3,121 −$3,121 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 96% −$6,320
politics 4% +$19,276
world 0% −$1,975
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 0m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 1m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $11 1m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 2m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 3m
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 4m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 4m
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 4m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $9 4m
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 5m
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 5m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 6m
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 8m
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 9m
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $4 11m
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 13m
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $32 14m
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 17m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $10 17m
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 18m
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 18m
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 18m
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $20 18m
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 19m
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $0 19m
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 20m
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 20m
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $0 20m
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-92.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -91.7% -92.5% 2% 2% -95.5%
≤30d 187 -91.7% -92.5% 2% 2% -95.5%
≤90d 187 -91.7% -92.5% 2% 2% -95.5%
all 187 -91.7% -92.5% 2% 2% -95.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3439.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -92.5% 2% -95.5%
10% -93.2% 1% -95.9%
15% ← realistic here -93.9% 1% -96.3%
20% -94.5% 1% -96.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366,902.37 · official $366,903.57 (match) · 3500 history records