Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5d1a…e943 sports 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,681 (+13%) realized +$6,840 · open −$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%69W / 164L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$891est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$2,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 45d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$4,249
other 24% −$5,725
politics 0% −$142
crypto 0% −$11
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -25.0% -32.1% 28% 28% -10.7%
≤30d 184 -6.9% -15.8% 29% 29% -9.9%
≤90d 233 -5.0% -14.1% 30% 29% -12.1%
all 233 -5.0% -14.1% 30% 29% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 29% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 28% -20.6%
15% -29.8% 26% -28.2%
20% -36.7% 24% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$390 vs −$173 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$2,149
Realized+$6,840
Unrealized−$159
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses69 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$891
Open positions17
Markets (closed)233 / 250
History coverage45d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Gabriel Diallo 20¢ 18¢ $600 $525 −$75 (-12%)
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 50¢ 100¢ $190 $382 +$192 (+101%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Arthur Rinderknech 54¢ 56¢ $250 $257 +$7 (+3%)
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Zeynep Sonmez 36¢ 42¢ $167 $198 +$30 (+18%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Kimberly Birrell 54¢ 92¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Will Ben Shelton be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $157 $154 −$3 (-2%)
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Katie Volynets 46¢ 68¢ $100 $147 +$47 (+47%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 36¢ 13¢ $200 $72 −$128 (-64%)
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Tomas Etcheverry 28¢ 18¢ $102 $67 −$36 (-35%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 52¢ 24¢ $100 $45 −$55 (-55%)
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Renata Zarazua 20¢ 8¢ $100 $42 −$58 (-57%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Joao Fonseca 68¢ 38¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-43%)
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Quinn Vandecasteele Quinn Vandecasteele 25¢ 24¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
Will Marcel Ciolacu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $121 $21 −$100 (-83%)
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $36 $8 −$28 (-77%)
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will Lucian Croitoru be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$3 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $185 −$174 -94%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $545 −$512 -94%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $159 −$70 -44%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $151 −$50 -33%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $387 −$335 -87%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $1,032 +$524 +51%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $292 +$196 +67%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $190 −$190 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $35 −$7 -21%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $308 −$153 -50%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $21 −$14 -64%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $52 +$20 +38%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $53 +$82 +155%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $53 +$37 +70%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 14 $159 −$150 -94%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $211 −$211 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $210 +$107 +51%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 14 $53 −$8 -15%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $105 −$19 -18%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $53 +$75 +142%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $210 +$100 +48%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $436 −$259 -60%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $84 +$100 +120%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $369 −$369 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $829 +$2,689 +324%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Bublik vs Fritz Jun 13 $139 −$139 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Alex Bolt Jun 13 $172 −$172 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Roberto Bautista Jun 13 $116 −$116 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Raducanu vs Rakhimova Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $127 −$127 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $303 −$303 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $53 +$157 +295%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $21 +$7 +35%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $58 +$19 +33%
Set 1 Winner: Krejcikova vs Linette Jun 13 $117 +$54 +46%
Set 1 Winner: Bonzi vs Minaur Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Cirstea vs Raducanu Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $606 +$214 +35%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $358 −$358 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Rybakina vs Maria Jun 12 $151 −$151 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $927 −$664 -72%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $53 +$86 +162%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 5¢ $32 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 6¢ $21 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 8¢ $21 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 9¢ $4 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 1¢ $11 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik SELL Mattia Bellucci 20¢ $90 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 5¢ $46 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 7¢ $53 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 7¢ $21 1h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexei Popyrin 41¢ $106 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 31¢ $106 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 31¢ $53 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 11¢ $21 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 11¢ $53 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 13¢ $21 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 12¢ $17 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 13¢ $53 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 18¢ $53 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 38¢ $21 1h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 25¢ $21 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 47¢ $21 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 47¢ $53 1h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 53¢ $53 2h
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 58¢ $53 2h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 29¢ $21 2h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 28¢ $21 2h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 21¢ $1 2h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 26¢ $32 2h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 26¢ $32 2h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 19¢ $12 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,149.04 · official $2,063.16 · 1229 history records