Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:31:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5d1e…ea30 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-7%) realized −$94 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%9W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$90
14 days−$108
30 days−$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$44
sports 22% −$70
crypto 15% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +14.2% +3.3% 40% 40% -34.1%
≤30d 25 -5.1% -14.1% 36% 36% -20.3%
≤90d 25 -5.1% -14.1% 36% 36% -20.3%
all 25 -5.1% -14.1% 36% 36% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 36% -20.3%
10% -22.3% 36% -27.9%
15% -29.8% 36% -34.9%
20% -36.7% 32% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$32 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses9 / 16
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage12d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $31 +$6 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $35 −$23 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $89 −$48 -55%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 25 $3 +$13 +414%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $56 +$44 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$8 +184%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $70 +$40 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $127 −$125 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $62 −$61 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$147 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 +$106 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +57%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $13 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-0 BUY 21¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $6 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $12 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $2 25h
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $3 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 26h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $6 26h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Czechia vs. Mex BUY $36 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $104 6d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $127 10d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $103 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.32 · official $77.05 · 62 history records