Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5D 0x5d22…2e6f other 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$119 (+5%) realized +$130 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%20W / 51L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$276
14 days+$75
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$235
sports 6% −$5
crypto 6% −$69
world 3% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -40.8% -46.4% 20% 17% -52.5%
≤30d 70 -29.2% -35.9% 27% 26% -6.6%
≤90d 70 -29.2% -35.9% 27% 26% -6.6%
all 71 -27.9% -34.8% 28% 27% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 27% -5.7%
10% -41.0% 25% -14.7%
15% -46.7% 25% -23.0%
20% -52.0% 18% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$17 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses20 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage228d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 38¢ $44 $33 −$11 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$23 +152%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $3 +$4 +134%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 −$20 -57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $69 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $9 +$51 +549%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $4 +$23 +549%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $27 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $4 +$2 +48%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $9 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $8 −$3 -37%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -91%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $15 −$12 -78%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -37%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$70 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 12m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 5h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 28h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 29h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 36h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 3d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $18 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.58 · official $32.58 (match) · 119 history records