Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:47:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d24…16a2 sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-5%) realized −$3 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%31W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$39
14 days+$39
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$28
other 28% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +21.6% +10.0% 48% 48% +12.9%
≤30d 35 +14.7% +3.7% 46% 46% +5.4%
≤90d 75 -4.0% -13.2% 41% 40% -12.7%
all 75 -4.0% -13.2% 41% 40% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 40% -12.7%
10% -21.5% 40% -21.1%
15% -29.1% 40% -28.7%
20% -36.0% 35% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses31 / 44
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage51d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 79¢ 52¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 38¢ 10¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 77¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $2 +$4 +216%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $5 +$5 +101%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $9 +$6 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $3 +$3 +89%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$18 +596%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $7 +$16 +229%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$10 +188%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 12 $8 −$2 -25%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $4 +$11 +269%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 12 $8 +$9 +114%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 30 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. KT Wiz May 07 $2 $0 +5%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins May 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 07 $2 −$2 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $2 −$2 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins May 06 $2 +$2 +82%
Will FC Anyang win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$4 -98%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. LG Twins May 05 $4 +$3 +78%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $2 −$2 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Chelsea FC leading at halftime? May 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $2 +$1 +46%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 04 $2 +$3 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $10 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 38¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $6 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2 16h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $3 24h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $10 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 27h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 100¢ $10 27h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 100¢ $15 27h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $10 29h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes SELL Kiwoom Heroes 100¢ $6 31h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 46¢ $2 31h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY LG Twins 66¢ $7 32h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY Samsung Lions 49¢ $5 32h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kiwoom Heroes 52¢ $3 33h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 14¢ $3 35h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY 25¢ $5 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 37h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $3 40h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 35¢ $4 40h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 27¢ $10 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 100¢ $23 2d
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins SELL LG Twins 100¢ $7 2d
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers BUY Doosan Bears 25¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.20 · official $11.52 · 130 history records