Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:30:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5D 0x5d25…98ab other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$2 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$4
sports 20% −$7
crypto 6% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 50% -3.9%
≤30d 10 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 50% -3.9%
≤90d 10 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 50% -3.9%
all 10 -9.4% -18.0% 60% 50% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 50% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 40% -13.1%
15% -33.0% 30% -21.5%
20% -39.6% 20% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $106 +$18 +17%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $15 $0 +1%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 −$3 -13%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$7 +64%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 42m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 43m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 21¢ $15 55m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $57 55m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $67 1h
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 3h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 3h
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 34¢ $10 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $12 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $17 10h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 10h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $10 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $10 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.56 · official $14.56 (match) · 26 history records