Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5d27…e63d crypto 198 markets active 2h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+0%) realized +$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%193W / 4L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$23
weather 3% +$2
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 63 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 197 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.34 per $1 lost it wins $6.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses193 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)197 / 198
History coverage248d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? May 30 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? May 29 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? May 17 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 15 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? May 13 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 10? May 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9? May 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 6? May 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 5? May 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 4? May 04 $43 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 3? May 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2? May 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? May 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 29? May 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 26? Apr 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on April 23 Apr 24 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 22 Apr 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 21? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 17? Apr 20 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $45 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $45 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $45 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $45 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $45 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $45 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $45 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $45 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $45 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $45 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $45 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $45 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $45 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $45 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $45 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $45 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $44 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $44 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $44 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $44 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $44 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $44 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $44 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.02 · official $45.02 (match) · 411 history records