Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d27…45e4 crypto 499 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$928 (+0%) realized +$928 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate78%389W / 110L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$190
14 days+$211
30 days+$666
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$807
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -3.5% -12.7% 87% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 350 +0.1% -9.4% 77% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 499 +0.0% -9.5% 78% 2% -9.2%
all 499 +0.0% -9.5% 78% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 2% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.1% 1% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$527) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$928
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses389 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)499 / 499
History coverage43d
Avg bet$402
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 499 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $705 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $706 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $706 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $719 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $697 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $363 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $691 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $685 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $475 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $681 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,380 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $670 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $677 −$7 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $1,353 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $670 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $664 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $657 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $652 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $645 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $639 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $633 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $627 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $621 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6AM ET Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $614 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $608 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $608 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $602 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $596 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $673 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $586 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $581 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $575 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $569 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $564 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $559 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $553 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $547 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $543 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $531 +$11 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $526 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $521 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $522 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $522 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 09 $282 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $122 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $182 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $296 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $81 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $115 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $24 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $705 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $706 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $365 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $322 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $704 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $56 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2055 history records