Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:33:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d2a…ea58 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+2%) realized +$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -19.5% -27.2% 67% 67% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -19.5% -27.2% 67% 67% -9.5%
≤90d 3 -19.5% -27.2% 67% 67% -9.5%
all 3 -19.5% -27.2% 67% 67% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 67% -9.5%
10% -34.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -40.5% 0% -26.0%
20% -46.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$20 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $99 +$15 +15%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$4 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $115 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $40 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 88¢ $8 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 10h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 10h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 74¢ $5 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.44 · official $14.44 (match) · 13 history records