Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5D 0x5d2c…cd4e sports 294 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$107 (-1%) realized −$107 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%141W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$233est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$228
7 days+$157
14 days+$290
30 days+$575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$269
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +10.5% -0.0% 54% 49% -1.5%
≤30d 200 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 48% -4.3%
≤90d 266 -1.1% -10.5% 50% 47% -9.3%
all 289 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 47% -11.1%
10% -20.7% 46% -19.6%
15% -28.4% 43% -27.4%
20% -35.4% 37% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$43 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses141 / 148
Est. fees paid−$233
Open positions5
Markets (closed)289 / 294
History coverage106d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 289 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 52¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+5%)
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Leylah Fernandez 45¢ 44¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungelliti Giles Hussey 41¢ 42¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu Ayla Aksu 29¢ 29¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+0%)
Set Handicap: Vidmanova (-1.5) vs Aksu (+1.5) Aksu 53¢ 50¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $48 +$35 +73%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 +$34 +152%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $34 +$41 +124%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 −$49 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $285 +$49 +17%
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) Jun 20 $67 +$29 +44%
Set Handicap: Nava (-1.5) vs Stewart (+1.5) Jun 20 $40 +$53 +134%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $39 +$29 +76%
Set Handicap: Birrell (-1.5) vs Spink (+1.5) Jun 20 $28 −$28 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 20 $62 −$61 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er Jun 20 $34 +$66 +197%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson Jun 20 $40 +$46 +116%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 20 $38 +$20 +51%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $22 $0 -0%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 20 $38 +$1 +3%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $22 +$44 +197%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $39 −$38 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Ayla Aksu Jun 19 $67 +$98 +146%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $63 +$4 +6%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $48 −$47 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $66 +$46 +69%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 19 $85 −$84 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $36 +$40 +111%
Ali Ahmed: 1+ goals Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Promise David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $29 +$34 +114%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 18 $45 +$25 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $45 −$44 -99%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $34 +$45 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$41 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $126 −$124 -99%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $29 +$27 +93%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $74 −$73 -98%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $50 +$36 +73%
Set Handicap: Putintseva (-1.5) vs Dudeney (+1.5) Jun 13 $48 +$41 +86%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Set Handicap: Cina (-1.5) vs Daniel (+1.5) Jun 13 $49 +$25 +50%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $39 +$23 +58%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $88 −$87 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $28 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Giles Hussey vs Marco Trungellit BUY Giles Hussey 41¢ $24 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 45¢ $28 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 29¢ $22 2h
Set Handicap: Vidmanova (-1.5) vs Aksu (+1.5) BUY Aksu 53¢ $22 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $83 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $75 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $22 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $34 11h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 63¢ $50 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $48 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele SELL Kamilla Rakhimova 68¢ $66 13h
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) SELL Waltert 100¢ $96 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele SELL Oksana Selekhmeteva 63¢ $268 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Oksana Selekhmeteva 50¢ $218 14h
Set Handicap: Nava (-1.5) vs Stewart (+1.5) SELL Stewart 100¢ $93 15h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Simona Waltert 48¢ $40 16h
Set Handicap: Marcinko (-1.5) vs Waltert (+1.5) BUY Waltert 69¢ $67 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele BUY Kamilla Rakhimova 67¢ $67 16h
Set Handicap: Birrell (-1.5) vs Spink (+1.5) BUY Spink 55¢ $28 16h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre BUY Indianna Spink 17¢ $34 16h
Set Handicap: Nava (-1.5) vs Stewart (+1.5) BUY Stewart 42¢ $40 17h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Felix Gill 54¢ $62 17h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu BUY Ayla Aksu 56¢ $39 17h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Lanlana Tararudee vs Veronika Er BUY Veronika Erjavec 33¢ $34 19h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson SELL Murphy Cassone 99¢ $86 19h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) SELL Pegula 99¢ $58 19h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson BUY Murphy Cassone 45¢ $40 20h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 41¢ $22 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.23 · official $124.52 (match) · 481 history records