Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5d30…d8db crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$82 (+7%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%21W / 12L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day42.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$60
other 19% +$21
sports 3% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.0% -9.5% 64% 52% -4.4%
≤30d 33 +0.0% -9.5% 64% 52% -4.4%
≤90d 33 +0.0% -9.5% 64% 52% -4.4%
all 33 +0.0% -9.5% 64% 52% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 52% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 30% -13.6%
15% -26.1% 15% -21.9%
20% -33.3% 6% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$11 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day42.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$10 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +37%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$10 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$31 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$13 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $118 −$19 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $126 +$12 +9%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 74¢ $1 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 74¢ $3 2h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 74¢ $6 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 70¢ $5 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 38¢ $5 5h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $17 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records